Jeremy Hunt, has delivered what we know will be the final Spring Budget before the General Election – though not necessarily his final ‘fiscal event’ if the election is delayed long enough. Westminster remains awash with rival theories about election dates in May, October or November. The Chancellor gave an assured and confident performance as he presented his ‘Budget for Long term Growth’. Much was indeed designed to address long term challenges such as productivity growth, but the real focus was unashamedly short term: to win the General Election.

The budget headline – the 2p cut in employee National Insurance – was news to no one and Conservative MPs will have been disappointed by the lack of any additional ‘rabbit out of the hat’. It’s a sign of the disloyal times we’re in, that the 2p NI cut was being attacked yesterday by the Chancellor’s own MPs. There were relatively few genuinely new measures or spending and taxation changes, and no major changes in policy direction. Few will have been aware of the visual effects tax relief cap before the Chancellor’s speech.

But there were jokes a plenty to cheer the Conservative benches at the expense of Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, and multiple attacks on the Opposition: the most effective line contrasting the difference between ‘no plan’ (Labour) and ‘no principles’ (Liberal Democrats). Note also the references to avoiding filling job vacancies with migrants, designed to appeal to voters tempted by the Reform Party.

Hunt’s speech unleashed a blizzard of statistics and test drove possible election slogans: ‘don’t go back to square one’. Most significant politically was the abolition of the ‘non dom’ tax regime, forecast to raise £2.7 billion a year, a Labour idea, and crucially a source of funding for many of Labour’s own policy proposals. After 14 years of power, it is difficult to not to see the change as entirely designed to throw a spanner into Labour’s calculations – as indeed it might.

In response Sir Keir Starmer, pointed to the ‘highest tax burden in 70 years’, the fall in living standards since 2010, and the fall in GDP per capita since 2022. Starmer had his own election lines to test drive - ‘it’s time for change with Labour’ and ‘Britain deserves better’. But he was most effective when he attacked the lack of new Budget ideas - ‘out of touch, out of ideas, and nearly out of road’ and ‘this is what decline looks like’. He called for to call an election for 2 May – still unlikely unless Labour’s poll lead falls rapidly.

There was certainly an end of term feel about this Budget, the Chancellor has little fiscal room to play – hence the lack of rabbits. The OBR’s Outlook still makes for sober reading. Instead soundbites, slogans and dividing lines on all sides were the order of the day.  Bring on the election.

If you want to ensure your organisation is election-ready, do get in touch: publicaffairs@cardewgroup.com