Rishi Sunak's Cabinet reshuffle marks a move to the centre ground and a serious attempt to stamp his authority on his Government for the last year of the Parliament. Is it too late to save him from election defeat?

The headline change is obvious: ex-Prime Minister David Cameron returning as Foreign Secretary. Impressive because it was unexpected, and because Cameron not Suella Braverman’s sacking dominates this morning’s headlines. Cameron’s return seven years after he left both Downing Street and the House of Commons is eye-catching, with echoes of Gordon Brown restoring Peter Mandelson to his Cabinet for the last 18 months of his Government.

Braverman’s indiscipline had finally snapped Sunak’s patience but instead of replacing her with another from the right of the party, he has gone for a loyal moderate, James Cleverly. Moving a Foreign Secretary at a time of mounting geopolitical tension would normally be highly risky, but Cameron’s international stature effectively shuts down that problem. Though there are criticisms that Cameron is not in the Commons, and that the top roles in Government are now all held by men.

Sunak has also taken the opportunity to remove perceived poor performers: Barclay at Health, Coffey at Environment, and Hands as Party Chair; and promoted moderate loyalists: Victoria Atkins at Health, Laura Trott as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, John Glen at the Cabinet Office, and Richard Holden as Party Chair.

Though the changes are few, their significance is the change in strategy: faced with Labour’s commanding poll lead, Sunak appeared to spend the summer pursuing a ‘red wall’ strategy, targeting Labour-facing seats in the North and Midlands by creating dividing lines on climate change and immigration. But with the polls unmoved, a largely unsuccessful Party Conference, and an underwhelming King’s Speech, Sunak is now signalling a move left to protect his ‘blue wall’, largely Liberal Democrat-facing seats in Southern England, voters in which are thought to be put off Braverman’s hardline rhetoric. Snap YouGov polling yesterday afternoon suggested sacking Braverman was welcomed by most, and Cameron’s return had fared well with Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

There are some intriguing sub-plots with the resignation of a number of middle ranking Ministers thinking about their lives after politics including Will Quince and Neil O’Brien at Health, Nick Gibb at Education and Jeremy Quin at the Cabinet Office; and the return of Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom.

Leading lights from the right of the Conservative Party will be licking their wounds this morning as they survey the shift of balance around the Cabinet table. If the polls don’t respond positively they will strike back.

But this morning Sunak will be enjoying surprising his many critics with a bold and decisive reshuffle, all from a man accused of being neither.

If you want to discuss how to ensure your organisation is election-ready do get in touch. 

publicaffairs@cardewgroup.com