Jeremy Hunt yesterday delivered an assured Autumn Statement – his second in the job and, unless the polls narrow, his last.

Fiscal events are as much about politics as economics, and in an election year even more so. Unashamedly political with constant jibes at Labour, and ‘marginal seat bingo’ namechecks, the big headline was the 2% national insurance cut, and the ‘full expenses’ capital investment measure for business. The heavily trailed inheritance tax cut has been held back for now.

The political context is a stubborn Labour poll lead, seemingly untroubled by numerous relaunches of Prime Minister Sunak, a King’s Speech and a reshuffle featuring the return of David Cameron. Ministers know they only have a handful of opportunities to cut through to voters before election day; so yesterday’s Statement was critical.

Higher inflation and wages created slightly more headroom for tax cuts but these same forces also erode public spending, and borrowing costs are high. The economic position is dire: downgraded growth forecasts, poor productivity, high debt, implied real term cuts in public spending, and inflation – therefore interest rates – staying higher for longer. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook is sobering.

The statement was politically well judged and more George Osborne than Kwasi Kwarteng. Cutting the NI rate in January rather than April was the biggest clue that holding the election on the same day as the local elections on 2 May, rather than the Autumn, is now a serious option – though surely only if the polls narrow. The tax cut was targeted at Middle England and the headline writers, but critics have been quick to point out that the overall tax burden still increases as tax thresholds remain frozen – ‘fiscal drag’ is fast becoming a phrase of the year.

In response, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves was unimpressed, pointing to ‘13 years of Tory economic failure’, the lower OBR growth forecasts and that taxes are higher now than at the last election. But she was careful not to oppose the headline measures.

Neither party is keen to talk about the trap Hunt has set for Labour since becoming Chancellor a year ago; meeting the Chancellor’s fiscal rules is predicated on eye-watering real term spending cuts post-election. Labour will commit to stick to these during an election campaign they are likely to win, and then face the challenge of delivering them during the next Parliament.

Hunt and Reeves know that measures to increase growth remain imperative if Britain is to escape the current doom loop of low growth and poor public finances. Both agree on the need for supply side measures aimed at improving productivity but the only interventions that could make a real difference to growth, significantly lower taxes or higher public spending, remain for now unaffordable, whoever is in power.

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