1 - Rishi Sunak will lead the Conservatives to defeat: Lost 474 councillors, 10 councils, a Commons byelection, East Midlands, North Yorkshire, West Midlands mayors. A very bad night but beating Reform to second in Blackpool and holding Teesside were enough for Sunak to avoid a leadership challenge.

2 - Labour is heading for power (but has a Gaza problem): 186 councillor gains, 8 councils, a byelection, 3 new mayoralties, 10 Police Commissioners. Advancing where they need to in key marginals but falling back in areas with high Muslim votes – most of these areas are safe for Labour but it could cost the party some marginals if not addressed.

3 - Reform is hurting the Conservatives: They did so on Thursday wherever they stood (1 in 8 seats) but only gained 2 seats - the Greens gained 74! Reform have said they will contest every seat at the general election.

4 - Lib Dems quietly successful: winning more seats than the Conservatives for the first time in 30 years, advancing in areas like Dorset where they need to be strong.

5 - Media hates a vacuum: 60 hours between ballots closing and Richard Parker winning was a vacuum of uncertainty filled with narratives from the main parties, lapped up by the political media. Rumours that Susan Hall could beat Sadiq Khan went viral and were written up by the BBC before a vote had been counted – his majority went up.

6 - It’s all about the NEV: Election experts Rallings and Thrasher ‘National Equivalent Vote’ (NEV) analysis, their measure of how England would have voted if every council was contested, showed Labour only 9 points ahead. ‘If repeated at a general election…these figures would lead to a hung parliament’. Conservative spinners jumped on it.

7 - Or is it: In truth the NEV won’t be repeated at a general election because most of the 23% shown in the NEV as ‘others’ will instead vote for the main parties. In that scenario, assuming some level of anti-Conservative tactical voting and a Labour revival in Scotland, we’re back in Labour majority territory.

8 - Internal narratives: NEV allowed Sunak to say that Labour will win – an unusual message 6 months out – but will be short of a majority. Why? Mainly to warn his own side to stay disciplined, loyal and focus on the prospect of a Hung Parliament. Problem for Sunak is the message will help Labour stay disciplined too.

9 - Blue on blue: Sunak’s message may hold the Party together, but the early signs are that the fight for his defeated Party will be bloody. Suella Braverman’s and Andy Street’s analyses, for example, are diametrically opposed.

10 - It’s the polls, stupid: The polls still point to a Labour majority and Thursday did not contradict this. Blackpool South was the fifth time in a year that the Government has lost a byelection with a swing to Labour of over 20%. A week is a long time in politics let alone 6 months, but as it stands there will be an election this autumn and Labour will win it.