Election day seems like a lifetime ago yet it is only 25 days since Keir Starmer’s Labour Party claimed victory. With Parliament now in recess what do Labour’s first days tell us about the shape of Keir Starmer’s Government? Here’s ten things we’ve learnt:

1. Labour were ready: Forget the pre-election ‘no complacency’ message, Labour were ready to go with the Cabinet appointed, King’s Speech drafted, and Whitehall officials summoned to meetings over the first weekend.

2. Labour wanted a team that could last: Labour brought Ministers from beyond the Party (James Timpson, Patrick Vallance, Peter Hendy), ‘re-tread’ MPs (Douglas Alexander, Mary Creagh) and newbies with relevant experience (Kirsty McNeill, Miatta Fahnbulleh, Georgia Gould) straight into Government. Starmer and his team understood the power of a 174-seat majority and were prepared to demote frontbenchers to create space, and demonstrate to the 200 newbies that promotion could be quick if they impress.

3. Labour are in a hurry: All Governments want to be seen to deliver early, but with the election so close to the summer recess Labour have had to deliver immediate statements of intent; cancelling the Rwanda scheme and onshore wind ban, reintroducing housing targets, a huge King’s Speech –  including rail nationalisation and planning reform – and a shortened summer recess to help get its 40-bill programme through.   

4. Labour are already planning the next election: Labour won big but it also knows that unless it delivers quickly on three key priorities: the NHS, making housing affordable and kick-starting economic growth (which underpin the other two), then they risk the wrath of the nation’s increasingly volatile electorate. Labour want to go back to the country in spring 2028 and want by then to have demonstrably delivered on key aspects of its programme.

5. Starmer looks like a PM from the off: Helped by a series of pre-summer events: the NATO Summit, the European Political Council, the Men’s Euros and the Paris Olympics, Starmer has immediately removed doubts that he wasn’t up to the job.  His approval ratings have jumped (though there have been few polls) and he has avoided major gaffes.

6. Labour will take no prisoners: Labour know there are tough decisions and unpopular measures ahead. So the decision to suspend the whip from the seven MPs who voted against the King’s Speech on the two-child benefit cap was very deliberate. Cushioned by a huge majority, Starmer was not prepared to tolerate the largest rebellion on a King’s (or Queen’s) Speech since 1946.

7. It WAS worse than they thought. Labour were always going to portray their inheritance from Rishi Sunak’s Government as disastrous. But the review into the state of the public finances has uncovered some genuine unexpected nasties including the not-budgeted-for pay awards for public sector workers, and the costs for the Rwanda scheme – with Rachel Reeves’ view backed up by the Office for Budget Responsibility. Labour had certainly not planned to pick a fight with up to 10m pensioners by making the Winter Fuel Allowance means-tested - a decision that could still come back to bite them.

8. 30 October is a big date: The Budget and the launch of the three-year spending review will be of huge significance for the shape of Labour’s first term.  Labour’s fiscal rules were already under huge pressure and will now be even more so.  The Chancellor’s political reputation could be made or broken by how she deals with that challenge.

9. Remember, remember the 5th of November: The US Presidential election casts a huge shadow over the Starmer administration. The nightmare scenario is a Trump victory, then a US withdrawal from Ukraine and the consequent huge jump in UK defence spending putting most of Labour’s plans in doubt. Labour are privately praying for a Harris victory.

10. … but don’t worry about 2nd November.  In normal times, the result of the Conservative leadership race would be of huge importance, but Labour don’t fear any of the candidates and are not expecting their largest opponents to be competitive for a while yet. Time will tell if that confidence is misplaced.